Predicted O and S funding for Dutch F-35 on the rise

Things may be "going forward" with the F-35 and the Dutch but paying to own and operate a jet that has no credible operational test done still begs questions.

The Dutch have discovered a significant rise in predicted operating costs:




H/T-JSFnews, and SR

LM performs flight with first Dutch F-35 mistake-jet--Response: ...crickets chirping...

On August 6th, a Dutch F-35, airframe AN-1, performed its first flight. On the 7th, it made its' second flight. On the 10th, it made its' 3rd flight. What was the response in the F-35 PR-spin-machine-world to this wonderful event showing alleged progress? Absolutely nothing reports JSF News (Google Translate Dutch-to-English).

One of the reasons for the PR silence could be that the Dutch election--where the troubled and expensive F-35 is an inflammatory issue--is only 4 weeks away.

It is unclear why this historical moment for the Royal Air Force is not noised data. The manufacturer Lockheed Martin normally consults with a client, press releases, believed to be from The Hague that the preference was given to wait a press release, taking into account the reaction of Lockheed Martin told the press: "We will need to refer you the Netherlands Ministry of Defence office for specifics surrounding the first flight of the Dutch F-35. "

Motion for Dutch to get out of F-35 program tabled

A motion has been tabled for the Dutch to get out of the F-35 program.

This by itself is not an absolute that the Dutch will get out of the F-35 program. It only allows for more parliamentary discussion leading up to the election later this year.

See this post by JSF News (Google translate Dutch to English) on the details which are still in progress.

Dutch proponents of the F-35 are now waving the jobs flag. Yet, due to significant development delays in the program, there are hundreds of lost orders against the original overly optimistic plan from over 10 years ago. Business investors have many risk, value and return-on-investment issues left unanswered.

High F-35 operating and procurement costs means that the Dutch will not see the original 80-some F-35 jet fleet. It is now closer to well South of 40 if not worse.

Also of interest, some are still addressing this as an F-16 replacement decision and not an F-35 decision.

To date, with all the budget and down-sizing issues present in the Dutch military, only the Saab Gripen appears to be an affordable F-16 replacement.

MP count

When counting MPs, the Dutch may be on their way toward having two F-35s that will never see an operational squadron.

The Dutch--like others in the region--are down-sizing their military. The F-35 does not meet any  measure of being practical. It its too weak to use for high-end anti-access threats and too expensive to own and operate for other kinds of fighter missions.

By the numbers, the only affordable F-16 replacement for the Dutch is the Gripen.

Or, a lightly armed trainer for air-policing duties.

The Dutch will have an election later this year. The F-35 mistake-jet will be a hot-button issue.

Tightening the reins

The Dutch Defence Minister's department is happy to paint an F-35 picture that isn't very accurate.

Yet a little credit should be given on improvement. Back in the days of a former Dutch Defence Minister Jack de Vries, he acted like he worked for Lockheed Martin.

This release states that costs have increased on the F-35 program "partly caused by a number of countries having moved their planned orders back to later years."

I wonder who told them that?

This is a common thread from LM briefers to customers. Blame governments first for not ordering hundreds of mistake-jets. Not mentioned in detail are a significant amount of engineering challenges which have made this 2003 plan a laughing stock.



Problems that are mentioned are minimized with a can-do, fix-it attitude.

The release talks about the cost problems with sustaining old F-16s however if one has problems like that, then they probably are not a valid F-35 customer. Unlike a legacy F-18, refurbing an F-16 is easier. If one poor-mouths F-16 operating costs when wanting something new, they are more likely better suited for something more practical and affordable.

The F-35 is at the polar-opposite of the affordability (and capability...as in flying question-mark) spectrum.

The department goes on to say that it should be no surprise that problems are discovered in testing. Congratulations. The release starts out like this,"Not all problems have been resolved yet but the programme is back on the right track."

I wonder who briefed them on that? Which track? Certainly not the one from 2007,2008,2009,2010,2011? Certainly not because those timelines have vanished.

Another interesting comment from the DM release states,"Furthermore, the programme management has tightened the reins."

Well, the program does have a strong resemblance to acts of sadomasochism. I'm not sure about what the term "tightened reins" means to the striking workers outside the Fort Worth plant.

Then there are some other nagging issues.

Panetta has been mentioned in passing but his credibility with the F-35 program is lacking.

The release mentions Belgium and Denmark are following developments with "keen inteest" but so is everyone else. Norway is mentioned. What is not mentioned is like the Dutch, military spending is assuring a hollow-force that won't be able to do much.

The Dutch election is coming up in September. I wonder how the closing of an airbase/42 jet plan will go?

Confidential Dutch plan cuts F-16s to 42, closes one base, to prepare for high F-35 costs

The Dutch are committed to the F-35 program. So much so that political parties backing the effort are attempting to keep a confidential plan quiet until after the September 2012 elections which will see F-16 numbers cut from 68 to 42 and the closing of Airbase Leeuwarden, according to JSF News.

The justification for this plan is to address predicted (and known) high F-35 procurement and operating costs. The time-frame for the plan is between 2014-2016.

The original memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the Dutch government and the U.S. Joint Strike Fighter project office projected a procurement of 85 F-35s. With the significant rise in F-35 costs, delay, technical problems and high operating costs, it is possible that 42 will be seen as the number of aircraft needed to replace the F-16s.

A 2007 Lockheed Martin briefing to Israel stated that the F-35 procurement price would be the same as an F-16 and that operating costs would be 20 percent less than an F-16. A variety of recent studies inside and outside of the U.S. Department of Defence do not back up that claim and show much higher procurement and operating costs.

It is expected that Dutch government officials will respond to this as being only a plan or a study and that the ministry of defence will state that it will let the decision rest with the next cabinet period. However, charges that Dutch F-35 advocates have something to hide with the F-16 replacement plan which is a hot-button election issue will be hard to avoid.

Risks for JSF Partner Nations are rising. TR2 hardware--needed to drive Block III software--does not arrive on production aircraft until sometime around 2016 if not later. Software challenges are large. There is no credible production learning curve for the F-35 because there are still so many unknowns. Significant technical problems remain to be solved.

No fully tested and sound go-to-war example of the F-35 is expected until the 2018-2020 time-frame at the earliest.

The long delayed flying training for student pilots has not started at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida because the F-35 is not certified as safe to fly for such an effort. Currently, high-hour test pilots--flying an extremely limited training envelop--are attempting to come up with a process which will allow new F-35 pilots to fly the aircraft safely.

Independent analysts predict that, by design, the F-35 will not be able to take on emerging air power threats and that, as delivered, it will be obsolete.

The Dutch F-16 replacement delusion

The Dutch will not order 85 F-35s. One should see this as no surprise. The whole idea of buying the F-35 to replace the F-16 is a new kind of fokker scourge that will never see operational service.

For the past few years, the F-35 has been a political problem for the Dutch. One of their past defence ministers Jack de Vries had the behaviour of a sales agent for Lockheed Martin even using their briefing slides. Gone native he did.

The F-35 even contributed to bringing down the government.

Another reason one should not be surprised by F-35 delay in the program is that the Dutch have been engaged in selling off F-16s for lack of interest of running an air force.

The Dutch will now wait until 2015 on the F-35 decision because no-one in politics is brave enough to back the idea of a fantasy combat aircraft which is marketed like a Ponzi Scheme. The defective jet has proven to be toxic for political careers.

Again, consult Thana Marketing.

The Dutch now have 68 F-16s. How many will they have by 2015?

The Dutch Defence Ministry sent a letter to Parliament in 2011 which informed them that the new hope (I won't use the word "plan" given the pedigree of the decision makers), is to procure F-35s between 2019-2027. This doesn't included the 2 mistake-jets being ordered for test. Or is it training? I forget the latest excuse for this part of the fraud.

In 2010, the same people signed off on this F-35 buy schedule;

Source: JSF Memorandum of Agreement (PDF) (click on image to make larger)


Well, that folks is a big difference. In one year they signed off on a letter with the U.S. Department of Defense stating Dutch F-35 procurment would be complete in 2021. Then the next year pushed it 6 years.

What will the ever troubled F-35 program look like for the Dutch in 2015?

First Dutch F-35 mistake-jet rolls out of LM factory

The Netherlands can barely pay to own and operate their F-16s but good news!

Their first F-35 mistake-jet has just rolled out. They own it now. Warts and all.

This aircraft will have numerous faults affecting airframe life, reliability and immature software. It also might not be safe to fly for anyone other than a test pilot accompanied by a chase aircraft. And while the Dutch are struggling to pay for F-16 operations, this F-35 will cost 2-3 times as much in operating cost per flying hour.

It was sold to the gullible in Dutch Defence as a training aircraft.

How much training of new pilots can be done is an issue still in contention in Florida. That effort is years late. They are still trying to work around a process which is safe. No final word on that yet.

Disqualified

If operating costs to run your F-16's is getting you down, you are disqualified as a potential F-35 customer. There is just no way you can afford it.

Dutch Defense Minister now doing LM sales work

Too funny. "Please let us all together buy this POS".

The rumour mill

I wonder who is telling the Dutch Defense Minister that F-35 technical problems--as highlighted in the November 2011 DOD quick look report and elsewhere--are "rumours"?

Minister Hillen said he informed his hosts of the thorny issues regarding the purchase of the Joint Strike Fighter that are causing political headaches in The Hague: “The price, the rumours about technical shortcomings. Are they true, and if they are not: why is it that they keep doing the rounds?”

Letters...we have letters

December 2004 letter from LM's Mr. Burbage to the Dutch.

519 LRIP and 5500 full rate F-35s. That by the way seems in my opinion overly optimistic. When that is communicated to a layperson; it is potentially misleading.