The Dutch are committed to the F-35 program. So much so that political parties backing the effort are attempting to keep a confidential plan quiet until after the September 2012 elections which will see F-16 numbers cut from 68 to 42 and the closing of Airbase Leeuwarden, according to JSF News.
The justification for this plan is to address predicted (and known) high F-35 procurement and operating costs. The time-frame for the plan is between 2014-2016.
The original memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the Dutch government and the U.S. Joint Strike Fighter project office projected a procurement of 85 F-35s. With the significant rise in F-35 costs, delay, technical problems and high operating costs, it is possible that 42 will be seen as the number of aircraft needed to replace the F-16s.
A 2007 Lockheed Martin briefing to Israel stated that the F-35 procurement price would be the same as an F-16 and that operating costs would be 20 percent less than an F-16. A variety of recent studies inside and outside of the U.S. Department of Defence do not back up that claim and show much higher procurement and operating costs.
It is expected that Dutch government officials will respond to this as being only a plan or a study and that the ministry of defence will state that it will let the decision rest with the next cabinet period. However, charges that Dutch F-35 advocates have something to hide with the F-16 replacement plan which is a hot-button election issue will be hard to avoid.
Risks for JSF Partner Nations are rising. TR2 hardware--needed to drive Block III software--does not arrive on production aircraft until sometime around 2016 if not later. Software challenges are large. There is no credible production learning curve for the F-35 because there are still so many unknowns. Significant technical problems remain to be solved.
No fully tested and sound go-to-war example of the F-35 is expected until the 2018-2020 time-frame at the earliest.
The long delayed flying training for student pilots has not started at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida because the F-35 is not certified as safe to fly for such an effort. Currently, high-hour test pilots--flying an extremely limited training envelop--are attempting to come up with a process which will allow new F-35 pilots to fly the aircraft safely.
Independent analysts predict that, by design, the F-35 will not be able to take on emerging air power threats and that, as delivered, it will be obsolete.
5 comments:
Considering that each block III/IV F-35A provides as much deterrent and capability as at least 1.5-2x F-16, perhaps the suggested 42x F-16s could be replaced by around 25-28x F-35 and be fine?
Regardless, there's no question FRP units are going to be astronomically expensive - much higher (simply unaffordable) than originally and even currently being estimated.
Lessons learned for all those involved along the way in pumping up and ensuring the unilateral acquisition of this aircraft no matter the cost.
One can only hope the eventual jet is reliable, sustainable and can operate even close to the required specs.
As they say, "Hope springs eternal!"
There is no doubt that the term "double' and the number "2" figure prominently in the JSF mix.
Double inferior is one that springs to mind.
Can't outturn, can't outclimb, can't outrun current threats let alone those that will be in the region post 2015.
Then there are those VOVS issues and problems which relegate the JSFs to the observable aircraft category.
..
Cda and Vvd realise that after the coming elections there is even less support for the F-35 program. They trying to make a F-35 buy more acceptable for other parties, so they can form a coalition goverment. I doubt it will work cause other parties are dug in into their anti F-35 stance for years now.
Makes no sense.
Can't afford an F-16 yet wants to buy an aircraft at 3x the cost with a higher op cost.
...and doesn't have a history or intent to be a first strike nation.
Try 4x the price and still going up.
And don't forget, the unit price of the JSF is just a down payment. There are all those software and hardware upgrades to consider, not to mention all the various fixes that LM is planning to get to do on cost plus contracts!
Post a Comment