It is good reading, although in many areas, not ground-breaking and maybe a bit too historical. The power in it comes from a person with significant operational experience. The timing of it and our future budget disaster era, could pretty much put an end to any claim USAF has on wanting the F-35 because Col. Niemi has provided a very large hammer to be used for more legacy fighter buys to recap USAF "needs".
This is OK in the coming years, if the threats in the Pacific Rim allow legacy aircraft to operate in an acceptable fashion. I don't believe they will.
Note as always, articles from serving military members end with this:
The views and opinions expressed or implied in the Journal are those of the authors and should not be construed as carrying the official sanction of the Department of Defense, Air Force, Air Education and Training Command, Air University, or other agencies or departments of the US government.
Where Niemi is strong:
-He has actual F-22 ops experience; as well as F-15E ops experience.
-He notes all the kinds of conflicts where high-cost (and high operating cost) stealth aircraft are not needed. This includes a mention that history being what it is, one could buy 3 Super Hornets for the cost of one F-22.
-He notes the budget reality including poor procurement thinking at all levels.
Niemi states: F-22 range is less than F-15 range and requires more tanking. This disagrees with another former F-22 squadron commander, (BG Molloy from the Molloy paper (PDF). Niemi also states that super-cruise with the F-22 has limitations but due to his position of not being able to present hard operational scenarios he is unable to explain further.
HOBS heaters and WVR. The F-22 currently does not have this capability; years after it was a known combat need for every other fighter design; years after initial operating capability. Note; the F-35, if it is fielded to real operational squadrons, will have AIM-9x for external carry, in the non-stealth mode (rah, rah).
Niemi brings up the high-end SAM threat but seems less convinced about the high-end air-to-air threats.
For Niemi, the F-22 is superior in air-to-air and survivability vs. high end threats but is inferior to legacy aircraft designs in all other mission sets. Niemi's review of USAF fighter procurement history since the end of The Cold War, like the efforts of Aviation Week's Bill Sweetman, show that, with current U.S. military-industrial-congressional-complex skill-sets, "stealth is not free".
I would wager that if the House and Senate Armed Service Committee types and others, use this Niemi paper as a hard source, then:
-Reopening F-22 production, as an idea is dead.
-The F-35 program is in even more serious jeopardy.
Niemi's most important statements point toward USAF senior-leadership ethics. Those seem to be even more faulty than any aircraft design. And, the future of America's air superiority is still a flying question mark.
11 comments:
I think the paper said 3.73 Super Hornets for each F-22
Stealth technology in general may have found its match.
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-10/01/radar-detects-stealth-aircraft
Jindalee has beeen doing that for many years.
Detecting and targeting are two very different problems.
True and with networked below X-band sensors (airborne or surface) a pretty good general location can be achieved.
The 4.5+ gen stopgap procurement option should have been implemented for the FY12 cycle at the latest.
An hypothetical FY14 alternative plan recap decision would be that much more late, but perhaps the only option available and the only reality to effectively implement going forward near-term. Being that catastrophically faced with a fighter-gap is not acceptable, but no matter how late and no matter how weakened the state of USAF's medium-term TACAIR force structure and deterrence will become, it's very likely the most prudent and reliable option to pursue a new-build 4.5+ solution5.
"True and with networked below X-band sensors (airborne or surface) a pretty good general location can be achieved."
Maybe there's reason to Growler after all?
Just keep that SHornet line open. And most of the LO stuff might end up unmanned anyways. Just because there's no alternative.
I had a chance to read the Niemi paper on the weekend. As you say there is nothing ground breaking in the document, but the fact that it's written by such an experienced F-22, F-15 pilot, it carries a lot of weight in the argument of 4+ gen planes vs 5 gen planes. The USAF should have always been re-capping the air fleet at least on a year by year replacement. i.e. old F-16 for latest block etc. The power of the paper is not that is tries to sell the value of 4+ gen aircraft but that it dispells the myth of all the stealth value of the F-22 in context of the cost structure. The F-22 is a tremendous air superiority aircraft but that doesn't mean it can do everything.
The marketing "sell job" that has gone on for years has created a myth that the word stealth means everything and anything. Personally I've always disliked the word stealth since in reality all systems are a measure of tactics vs counter-measures.
The tendencies to put weight on any argument based upon the 'who' instead of the 'what' are the logical fallacies of argumentum ad populam and appeals to authority.
Meanwhile, the Chinese, the Russians and the Indians as well as those to whom they export their defence materiel haven't got the memo - not that they would do anything other than ROTFL if they had!
^^ Canuck Fighter. Some good points and well said.
The problem though of course with the concept that USAF 'shoulda been recapping 4+' all along in conjunction with 5th gen procurement and development Programs, is that there was never enough budget to implement both the F-22 and F-35 Programs simultaneously, let alone the F-35 Program by itself.
To have recapped responsibly and strategically as part of a calculated and prudent TACAIR recap plan doing it all over again, would have per definition meant implementing solely the F-22/23 Program supplemented with 4+ procurement as the medium-term procurement mix. Either that or implemented a fundamentally restructured and down-sized F-35/JSF Program from inception and cancelled F-22 procurement prior to LRIP.
Post a Comment