The United States Air Force (USAF) has officially stated that initial operating capability (IOC) for the F-35 won't happen until sometime in 2018. This was sort of expected when looking at the tea leaves over the past several months.
F-35 IOC for the USAF is now 7 years late compared to the original plan back in 2001.
Trends and program progress would indicate this will slip again.
Until then, USAF can count on about 300-350 F-16s being modernised with AESA and airframe work. Which will give them about another 7-8 years of additional life depending on each airframe. F-16 Blocks have various health issues. For instance, Block 4X are now very old. The smaller number of Block 5X are no longer young. USAF thinks they can do more above the 300-350 but I wouldn't count on it.
There are around 170-some F-15Cs that will get AESA and various upgrades which will allow them to operate out to the 2020s. We will have 170-some F-22s. When you get rid of the small-motor F-15Es, we will have a few handfuls of large motor F-15Es.
Add all that up and take away some for not being combat-coded, and that is the fast-jet fighter force for the USAF for the 2020-2030 era.
The idea that the F-35 will be able to be helpful in recapitalising the USAF fighter force doesn't seem very credible.
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On the other side of the coin are the Chinese who are quietly churning out advanced 4+ generation fighters.
If we look at the recent large order for Russian AL-31's by China the numbers are interesting. China has roughly 250-300 J-10's in service at this point. By adding the two orders for the AL-31FN's (120 &140) to the current aircraft they'll have roughly 500-600 J-10's. Throw in the 3-4 new Flanker variants which should enter production soon along with the J-7 fighter bomber, and the mysterious J-20 and at some point in the next 5-10 years China will surpass the US the number of fighter they have. Worse these will be new build modern aircraft not rebuilt 15-20 year old F-15's/F-16's.
Will the US continue down the path of least resistance and continue to feed the funding hungry and dysfunctional JSF Program to oblivion while the balance of air power tips in favor of China?
http://www.ainonline.com/?q=aviation-news/ain-defense-perspective/2011-10-03/big-new-chinese-order-russian-fighter-engines
I wonder if the J-20 is in part exploited as cover, under which the main physical force can rapidly multiply without attention. Not a bad strategy if so.
The real threat now is the J-10B which will most likely enter full production in 2012.
Some of the interesting features are a new DSI inlet, AESA X band radar, EOTS/IRST, integrated ECM suite and encrypted datalink. This is a real 4.5 generation fighter and will be a serious threat if produced in large numbers.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/--WYa8SsYy1c/TjRbreZNwKI/AAAAAAAALpQ/vOkRT_RAMmw/s400/1312032391_41021.jpg
Cocidius: Very concise and relevant points. Unfortunately, in my years of research and posting,I've found that F-35 fans lack a gene that controls "common-sense." The F-35 program is a mess, and F-35 fans don't seem to realize the implications of what we've done in the past (cancel the F-22 to pump money into an unproven program, at the expense of a platform that should be taking on the PROVEN F-35 "flexibility capabilities" that Gates has trumpeted; he's a really old, bad joke), continue to do in the present (pump money into a program that's behind schedule and way over-budget; all the while making claims about how "cheap" it is; how can one know the cost of a plane whose design we're still paying to fix, never mind the fact it hasn't dropped a bomb, fired a missile, got a working HMS, or demonstrated that its airframe can last more than 1/4 its expected service life), and no doubt will continue to do for the foreseeable future (pump money into a program that has demonstrated very little, has barely started its flight program, and which will certainly require billions MORE in "corrections" to airframes we've built under this ludicrous concurrent design/build scam.)
Meanwhile, as you stated so clearly, countries are putting 5th-gen capabilities in 4th++ gen aircraft, knowing full-well that their best bet is not to compete head-to-head with a fictional 5th-gen, but rather focus on our real problem - delayed airframe replacement and/or upgrades and the decreasing numbers of airframes that they have to contend with. Mr. Gates has effectively put us into a race with a rapidly growing economy (China) that is increasing the number AND quality of its aircraft while we cling to this program in the HOPES that it really is "too big to fail" - In my opinion, the fact that we're even in this race represents ONE of the biggest failures in this program, and in Gates' career... But there are more failures to come, of that I am certain.
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