As Lockheed Martin has found out with the both the F-22 and the F-35, fifth-generation fighters are hard to get right: the F-22 was recently grounded with a system problem that was causing pilots to black out, while the F-35 is behind schedule, over budget and testing the patience of the U.S. Air Force to the limits.
So, because a U.S. deskilled and groupthink-rich environment has such problems, those same problems will be there for the Chinese? Well, that is an environment that would have people shot for doing what the U.S. military-industrial-congressional-complex has done.
Also, I am curious how many communist factories let you drink your lunch under a tree in your pick-up truck?
And, the U.S. only has one fifth-generation fighter. The other that marketing pukes are trying to push as such is a complete disaster.
I suspect that Chinese problems will be somewhat different.
The key challenge facing Chinese designers is not in coming up with a stealthy platform, but the systems that go inside it. These include electro-optic sensors and an AESA fire-control radar – a generational jump in technology that comes as standard on F-35s and F-22s; stealthy coatings; and reliable engines. The latter are a particular bugbear for China, which has for years relied on Russian technology to power its fast jets. Many Western observers believe the Shen Fei is powered by two Russian-sourced Klimov RD-93 turbofans, reinforcing perceptions that this particular weakness is holding China back. The fact that the same images show that these engines appear to be ill-fitting suggests that Shenyang may be following the lead of Chengdu, which is believed to be trying out a number of different engines on the J-20.
The author needs to use a push mower on a warm summer day while wearing winter gear. Then maybe he will understand the concept of "thermal issues" with the F-35 and the show room options he claims work in an unproven and troubled weapons system that is way short of real operational testing.
As for the avionics, I would think the Chinese will not over reach like the U.S. has with the Just-So-Failed. They might use something like, oh, I don't know, a HUD, instead of a helmet/display fubar.
Engines? Yeah sure. And, we will see.
6 comments:
At least on paper, the claimed avionics expected on the J-10B alone would seem to be sufficiently modern and 'good enough' for an evolutionary track to build upon.
It's probably true that the 'gap' in electronics, avionics, ew and medium-range a2a munitions is not that significant today, or will be insignificant very soon.
Is it also probable that engine development, such as with the WS-10B and WS-13 could prove to be reliable and sufficient within the near-term?
And equally relevant with respect to being 'good enough' as part of the overall mix, would arguably be the relevance attached to actual quantitative numbers of operational units. That balance of quantity and quality for next-gen force structures would seem to be an essential determinant in assessing the changing balance of power in the world. That is, if one was looking at the picture in a more strategic sense and not more so in a pre-conceived single-dimensional type aspect.
The same story is getting told over and over again so it must be true, it goes something like this:
The Chinese are years behind in knowing how to build 5th gen fighters due to a lack of knowledge on stealth coatings/materials, avionics, radar, and jet engines.
The reality for anyone who cares enough to look is more like this:
1. They've been hacking into sensitive US government agencies/vendors for the last 15 years and have taken multiple terabytes of sensitive info on US stealth platforms.
2. Chinese technicians were on the ground within 48 hours of the mission to kill OBL and both inspected and took samples from the damaged stealth chopper used in the raid.
3. They have very close ties with Iran and most likely have been involved with inspecting the captured Lockmart stealth drone.
4. All their modern fighters in production today have full glass cockpits, advanced radar systems (including AESA on the J-10B), data-links/sat com systems, and well developed missile systems built on borrowed/stolen/captured Russian, US and Israeli technology.
5. Many of their recent new fighters are flying with Chinese engines which seem to have become more reliable in the last several years.
In the case of the "poor" fitting engines seen on the J-21/J-31, an alternative explanation is these are TVC prototype engines and they're supposed to look like this.
Do I think that the Chinese will be mass producing 5th gen fighters in the next few year? NO!
But there is no reason to believe that they can't develop 5th gen fighters and have them start entering service in the next 5 years.
very good post
China will be fine and they will mass produce stealth fighters, stealth bombers and ICBMs and we will swept away if we don't start to use some strategic thinking.
Our problem is that we cannot stop our wasteful habits of hanging onto failed systems like the F-35 and LCS.
We don't need those 2 mentioned programs. Cap the F-35 program. Restart production of a larger upgraded F-22 with IRST. Forget about spending billions on stealth bombers. Cassidians passive radar is going into production and will make the B-2 obsolete or any successor that is. Instead produce new B-1Rs which can carry tons of missiles which then can do the penetration to the target.Build new ICBMs and nukes for an effective US nuclear deterrence. Reduce the size of the army. Close overseas miltary installations. Allow our allies including Germany, Japan and South Korea to maintain their own nuclear deterrence. A larger U212 type submarine could fit that role. Our biggest challenge is the strategic ineptitude of our leaders. A stronger military for less money? it is totally feasible, but we don't allow it.
To Cocidius:
You're right, if the Chinese install already developed radar/avionics from J10B or such,Russian RD93s, I think it is feasible that we could see a small batch of J31As in service in 5 years. Is it the definitive version? No, probably take a few more years to see Chinese engines or TVC installed, then real new radar/full spec avionics, full spec LO, could be 2022 or 2025 before we see a full blown J31B.Then you have to figure as some have surmised that a Naval version -C might also take time and take away resources....Let's not forget J20 is still in development which also is a question mark....
What really also has to be factored in and we pretty much know little about, how good are their pilots, training, team work, experience,etc..? I have heard rumors of a Chinese Nellis Red Flag but even if it exists, can it compare? China hasn't been in a war in decades and haven't had really any exchanges, can you compare the Chinese Air Force to USAF or even European nations that have recently had war experience /operations or participate in regular exercises within NATO?
All this new technology is real nice but without training and experience, it can only go so far....
And they are not buying"expertise" from Israel.
Grow up.
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