The sample below represents the total acquisition cost for each item in the FY2013 budget proposal.
Back in the 1990's the JASSM was supposed to be an affordable cruise missile at around 400k each. Remember Powell complaining about bouncing rubble with million dollar cruise missiles in Desert Storm? Well, that "affordable' post Desert Storm JASSM is now shockingly high. At $1.57 mil each, it better be one heck of a target to be worth that money. And; the JASSM has had some significant troubles over the years performing up to any reasonable level....in highly scripted range events. Some recent tests have been good, but I wonder what will happen if a USAF general points to a bomber unit and has them do no-notice live-fire tests on different production lots gathering dust in the igloos.
The other part of that is that the accuracy of cruise missiles is always a tightly guarded secret. Hint; they didn't do all that well in Desert Storm, yes that was a long time ago, but I'm not so convinced on the bang for the buck. Granted it beats sending a pilot to a fixed target, but in the case of Libya, the air defense was so weak that it didn't require cruise missiles. It was more for show. A JDAM party would have been fine.
The JSOW now costs what a JASSM was supposed to cost. JSOW was supposed to be around the 200k region depending on variant.
JDAM was supposed to be around 18k per kit. Today those kits are 33k each.
The AIM-120 has taken a giant leap for defense contractor kind; well beyond the cost of the JA$$M.
I don't think I am getting that old. I am just a bit concerned about what we are buying.
4 comments:
Excellent overview, Eric.
Well done and good call in using the total acquisition costs.
After all, they are closer to the price other countries will pay than the misleading and deceptive use of things like unit recurring flyaway/drive away/sail away costs.
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Just a comment about the weapons programs cost esclation, it's important to recognize many of the new figures are in then year dollars and as such will be much higer than their original cost whenever the program of record was established. For JDAM it was 18k per kit in 1995, which in 2013 dollars (FY13 budget after all) should be around 28k per kit. Sure the actual figure is 33k but when you factor the production rate escalation and integration across a variety of platforms, the figure isn't that unreasonable.
I'm rather impressed that F-18E/F PUC is still priced under $90m in FY13. I thought that one was rapidly creeping upwards to that key level.
Not bad for a rugged jet w/ an upgradeable AESA and capable next-gen computer.
I do have to also wonder how the heck the AMRAAM has grown so considerably in cost over the past 5-6 years?? Doubled? WTF.
It's pure mark up.
If you simplistically dissect a missile, one generation to next couldn't possibly cost that much more materially.
- propellant, explosive, casing/structure. Missile use very little chemical, industrially speaking. And it's not the most exotic or expensive. (compare to say pharmaceuticals for eg.)
then you enter into electronic hardware. Which seriously, it's nothing but glorified iPhone with fancy detector. (eg. missile microchip manufacturing process isn't going to be more advance than common high end computer chip. And believe you me, missile detector isn't the most expensive detector you can buy relative to its capability. compare them to lab instrumentation. They are only radio wave and near visible.)
So what's left is all programming and putting it together.
There is going to be a day when the chinese will decide to make low cost $10K short range missile and put 20 of them on a single supersonic drone and win by number. Say they fly 100 of this mig 21 class drone... It's 2000 missiles in one battle.
All those expensive toys wont matter. Low cost saturation wins.
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