Wednesday, July 27, 2011

F-35 Ponzi scheme still a bad idea for Australia

Via ABC.

"Australia is paying $3.2 billion for the first 14 at $228 million per aircraft - an initial cost to buy early-build units so pilots can be trained on the advanced fighter-bomber."

Australia isn't paying anything for these 14 aircraft. There has been no money handed over for this weak idea as of yet.

Consider this though, brave Mr. Hill hoped we would have the first F-35s in service by 2012. We now know how that turned out.

The real question for Mr. Smith from the media should be, "Why is Australia trying to acquire expensive and faulty aircraft that won't be able to take on emerging Pacific Rim threats?"

And this deception.

"The balance of the $16 billion order will be from aircraft made later in the production cycle when prices are expected to be lower."

There have already been large numbers of aircraft cut from production. In 2003, low-rate initial production (LRIP) batch number 5 was on the order of 120 aircraft. In 2009 LRIP 5 was briefed as 61 aircraft. Today, LRIP 5 looks like around 35 aircraft. Without large numbers, there is no low price. Without a stable design, there is no production learning curve. Mr. Smith is woefully under-briefed on the status of this program. Why?

Hill; gone. Gumley; gone. Houston; gone. And, many enablers of this Ponzi scheme in the U.S.; gone.

“It’s about $37 million for the CTOL aircraft, which is the air force variant.”
- Colonel Dwyer Dennis, U.S. JSF Program Office brief to Australian journalists, 2002-

". . . US$40 million dollars . . "
-Senate Estimates/Media Air Commodore John Harvey, AM Angus Houston, Mr Mick Roche, USDM, 2003-

" . . US$45 million in 2002 dollars . ."
-JSCFADT/Senate Estimates, Air Commodore John Harvey, Mr Mick Roche, USDM, 2003/2004-

". . average unit recurring flyaway cost of the JSF will be around US$48 million, in 2002 dollars . . "
-Senate Estimates/Press Club Briefing, Air Commodore John Harvey, 2006

". . the JSF Price (for Australia) - US$55 million average for our aircraft . . in 2006 dollars . ."
-Senate Estimates/Media AVM John Harvey ACM Angus Houston, Nov. 2006-

“…DMO is budgeting around A$131 million in 2005 dollars as the unit procurement cost for the JSF. .”
-AVM John Harvey Briefing, Office of the Minister for Defence, May 2007-

“There are 108 different cost figures for the JSF that I am working with and each of them is correct”
-Dr Steve Gumley, CEO of the DMO, Sep./Oct. 2007-

“…I would be surprised if the JSF cost us anymore than A$75 million … in 2008 dollars at an exchange rate of 0.92”
-JSCFADT Dr Steve Gumley, CEO DMO, July 2008-

". . Dr Gumley's evidence on the cost of the JSF was for the average unit recurring flyaway cost for the Australian buy of 100 aircraft . ."
-JSCFADT/Media AVM John Harvey, Aug. 2008-

Confirmed previous advice i.e. A$75 million in 2008 dollars at an exchange rate of 0.92,
-JSCFADT Dr Steve Gumley, CEO of the DMO, Sep. 2009-

" ...about $77 million per copy."
-Robert Gates, U.S. Secretary of Defense, Feb. 2008.


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3 comments:

Horde said...

Correction, Eric.

Senator the Hon Robert Hill thought the F-35A JSF would be in service with the RAAF by 2010!

Remember, the Defence 2000 WP had the Hornets starting to retire in 2010.

Also, the F-111s to start retiring sometime after 2015 while DSTO was saying that the aircraft could be operated through to 2020 and likely beyond, at minimum risk.

Unknown said...

Thanks.

All important points that those in the media who fall under the category of "pay-for-my-lunch-and-I-will-write-something-nice", don't report so well.

Snorbak said...

It makes me laugh looking back when our senior defence personel talked about the unacceptably high risk of maintaining the F111 beyond 2010 yet they are still pushing the F35 as the best option for Aus. What of the risk associated with committing to buy an un-proven, under tested, over priced aircraft that will never be able to do what the "tired" pigs were capable of?