Japan may be out of the running for the Collins-class replacement.
If so, the Entrenched Defence Bureaucracy will have dodged a big, extreme-risk bullet.
I hope the Germans win it because they communicate that they know what they are doing, and have a long track record of project efforts with different customers.
Australia as a customer will be difficult, but at least with Germany, we have hope.
In the end I would like it 50/50. 6 off-the-shelf German 212/214 and 6 of whatever Frankenstein has to offer.
RAN sub ops are a family business. Lots of short cruises with off-the-shelf boats of no more than a few days, keeps sailors with families happier and gets in lots and lots of the boring stuff about subs. All of that recurrent safety and boat handling training. Over and over again. You can teach long endurance later. Keeping the basics going, week in, week out, with lots of short cruises, will keep crews...as a long-term career, available.
Still out there, the Entrenched Defence Bureaucracy has not given enough effort to considering the growing ASW threats in this part of the world. Flying drones with a variety of sensors, will offer trouble.
All in all, though, we will still wait on an official announcement from Defence.
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