F-35C bad if it fails and maybe bad if it doesn't fail

Now that the F-35C has performed a very smooth landing aboard an aircraft carrier in smooth conditions, the Navy has some big decisions to make.

While the initial test isn’t over, there are those in the fan base that can now push the Navy that this isn’t such a bad idea.

Legacy F-18C/D Hornets have to be “replaced”. Yet, the Navy is in big trouble with money. The F-35C will cost somewhere above $30,000 per flight hour. That figure put forward by NAVAIR some years back assumed everything on the aircraft worked.

In order to field the F-35C on the carrier, the Navy will have to come up with a lot of money.

So much so that it will eat into existing hopes and dreams of other programs. UCAS-N, older Super Hornet refurbs. And I suspect the real shutdown of the Super Hornet production.

The Navy cannot fund everything.

So putting on the F-35C hat where one has to live within budgets I would see this as “practical”.

-More operating expense and engineering changes due to the fact that the aircraft still isn’t anywhere close to mature (even by 2019) means less aircraft in the carrier wing.
-Phase out legacy Hornets at an accelerated rate.
-Phase out early Super Hornets at a fast rate.
-Phase out new Super Hornet Block IIs at a fast rate. The U.S. can't afford to pay for the luxury of two fast-movers on the deck.
-Phase out EA-18Gs (they can’t keep up and legacy jam gear is just that).
-Carrier Air wing fast movers? 2 squadrons of F-35Cs
-12 F-35Cs and…..4 K-35Ds per squadron.
-K-35D recovery tanker, is taking the F-35C and having no combat capability. Including no stealth refurb.It will be a dedicated recovery tanker with the internal 19,000 pounds of fuel plumbed to 1 2000lb capacity tank on each wing; Internal bays made into 1 section for 6000 pounds of fuel. Gun-pod connection is the drogue hose-reel container.
-Expectations of what a carrier air wing can do will be reduced. The F-35C isn’t very anti-access friendly anyway so the anti-access mission for the carrier is gone.
-There will be a small Det of UCAS-N if it works out ... and can be paid for... And that will do mostly long-range ISR.
-Maintenance on the F-35C aboard ship is still unresolved. And with that spot-factor you will have some space to work on the aircraft since there are less of them in the carrier air wing.
Less aircraft on-board also means that these more thirsty aircraft have enough fuel on ship. Having a mixed effort of Super Hornets or 4 squadrons of anything that includes the fuel-hungry F-35C isn’t realistic for sustainment of air ops.
The Navy will have to live with an F-35C that can take 8 Small Diameter Bombs, or JSOW-C1 or L-JDAM.
Cycles? 2 F-35Cs with 16 SDBs evey 2 hours.
Maybe someday the gun-pod will work or be useful. We will see.
USAF tanking will be very much needed. This may push some missions out to 9-10 hours.

The U.S. Navy carrier aviation effort is a huge drain of money. Carriers are needed. But they may also end up doing missions where they are a primary helicopter carrier for special forces efforts. The carrier is a floating airfield.

I think all of this is bad but with $15B aircraft carriers and every other gold-plated want and need, I figure some interesting decisions will happen by 2020.

Listen to the whispers about the LCS.

Reality and...

...trying to make ends meet.