Tuesday, August 2, 2011

RAAF boss is committed, or should be

Abraham Lincoln said, "How many legs does a dog have if you call the tail a leg? Four. Calling a tail a leg doesn't make it a leg."

Yes, it connects to the F-35 program because everyone that wants the jet is ready to call the jet something it will never be; affordable, sustainable, lethal, and survivable.

You may add the boss of the RAAF, chief air marshal Brown to the F-35's propaganda Ponzi scheme. He is happy to put forward misleading statements because any other course would risk his career. Or, maybe he just believes.

When it comes to faulty weapons systems, few Australian flag rank officers will stick their neck out by telling the truth to the public. Which really means by default, he is not on our side.

Brown states that the plan is to have an all F-35 fleet by 2020. If so that would mean that we are only going to get 72 F-35s as the other 28 have now been kicked down the road.

Take a look at this memorandum of agreement from 2007 signed off on by Australia and the U.S.


(click image to make it larger)


And this one from 2010.


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Brown also overlooks more than a few problems.

"JSF has had a pretty good year as far hitting its test milestones are concerned and it is tracking pretty much to plan at the moment,"

The plan which since the beginning of the program has been also, kicked down the road a few times.

Brown may also be a man of faith.

He said Admiral Venlet had created a very realistic delivery schedule which allowed for it to remain on track even if something did go wrong.

"I have got a lot more confidence in the schedule than I had ... before it was baselined," he said.

"I am still comfortable with where we are sitting at the moment."

Interesting story, but the review of the program has been delayed also. DOD may have recertified the aircraft after its second Nunn-McCurdy breach, but that still leaves the DAB. Delayed again. We are told not to worry; which means; worry. This from Defense News.

"A Defense Acquisitions Board (DAB) review that would have established a new cost baseline for the triservice F-35 Lightning II has been postponed until the fall, the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program's top official said June 15."

Emphasis mine.

The reporter(s) on this piece like many before them, misreport the facts.

"Australia has so far contracted to buy an initial 14 aircraft."

This is untrue. No money has been handed over for these 14 aircraft; nor should it given the unstable design and slow progress.

Brown states this:

"I think we will see the costs continue to drive down as we get more aircraft on that production line."

If only there was a stable design. Which is needed for a production learning curve. Then the reporters show some redemption with this:

Considerable development still remains, particularly in the difficult area of integrating all the various electronic systems.

And dropping weapons; and using it as a weapon of war; if we can afford it. Even if the tail is not a leg.

.

19 comments:

Bonza said...

Risking his career? He's a service chief! Only one possible higher job and most service chiefs don't make it because 3 into 1 doesn't go all that well...

I thought the love would be pouring out here for AVM Brown, after all he's a "real" pilot, not just a helicopter pilot with more than 5000hrs in PC-9's, Macchi's, Miracles, Hornets and the Pig, a qualified fighter combat instructor and on top of all that, he's even got an engineering degree under his belt.

According to the criteria espoused around here as to what qualifciations the Chief of RAAF should have, he ticks all the stated boxes and if that weren't enough, he even has combat time, being the Commander of the RAAF fighter detachment deployed to Iraq in 2003.

Curious.

Unknown said...

And yet the guy is wrong. Funny that.

Bushranger 71 said...

Very sadly, the great US is now shrouding itself in ignominy following more public revelations regarding their true economic status. Even children could figure that they need to cut spending by maybe 10 times more than intended and increase taxes. Defence related outlays are a staggering 24 percent of total national expenditure which is unsustainable and just has to be slashed.

Why in such a scenario would sane leaders risk further embarrassment in contemplating continuation of a program that has not yet completed 10 percent of flight testing and could yet yield a real dud aircraft? Imagine the further damage to the US image if the 8 other nations conned into subsidising the project acquire a very costly bit of hardware that might not offer the proven capabilities of say an enhanced F-16, a type which several of the project partners now operate.

Anonymous said...

Bonza
Isn't it obvious that a long retired flight test engineer and his followers know much better than someone with AIRMSHL Brown's experience, noto mention that of and AIRMSHL Binskin, and AVM Osley, and AIRMSHL Harvey etc etc etc!

Unknown said...

All that alleged experience and still a huge project of concern list. Which is where the F-35 will be the second that the first order is officially made by government.

Here is more copy/paste reporting of the same story, via Canberra Times.

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/national/national/general/16b-jsf-contract-hitting-targets/2246357.aspx

Bushranger 71 said...

I view this statement by CAF as condemnation of defence capability planners: "The issue now is to knit it all together and that gives you the full capability. That's always a challenge on any sort of aeroplane, whether it's a (Boeing) 787 or a fighter,"...

Well; nobody buys an airliner before it has been adequately proven and certified for commercial service, yet Australia has contracted to acquire 14 unproven F-35!

There seems no accountability within the Defence realm for committing the nation to unproven hardware acquisitions including Wedgetail, Tiger, MRH90, JSF. We should not entertain being early customers for any kit based on offset order inducements to benefit largely foreign-parented defence industry. This is the major weakness in Australia's defence policy.

The basic principle should be to first optimise/enhance in-service kit to maintain continuous adequate and credible military capacity; then to be downstream customers for any replacement hardware after all of the bugs have been sorted and it has been operationally proven.

Only another looming global financial crisis and the JSF project foundering might cause some serious scrutiny of Australian defence planning.

RS said...

Anon said:
"Bonza
Isn't it obvious that a long retired flight test engineer and his followers know much better than someone with AIRMSHL Brown's experience, noto mention that of and AIRMSHL Binskin, and AVM Osley, and AIRMSHL Harvey etc etc etc!"

Obviously.
Lately,they have not got much right have they.

Anonymous said...

ELP - The only Air Force projects on the POC list is JASSM which is about to come off, KC-30 which was the only show in town when selected and is almost fully Airbus's fault, and Wedgetail which will probably come off early next year. POC listings usually have more to do with DMO and industry rather than the capability managers.

RS - Like what haven't they got right lately? Super Hornet? Oops, no, that's right. C-17? Nope, that's right too. Let's see...Wedgetail? Took a while, but is now going great guns.

BR71 - there is NO CONTRACT for any JSFs from Australia yet...

RS said...

1, why do you not have a name?
"RS - Like what haven't they got right lately? Super Hornet? Oops, no, that's right. C-17? Nope, that's right too. Let's see...Wedgetail? Took a while, but is now going great guns."

The Super Hornet and C17 were selected without the "advice" of the RAAF and the failed DMO.
Hornet and C17, success, because a minister got it correct.
The Wedgetail is how late, and below spec ?
Congrats.

Anonymous said...

1. Because I don't have a Google, OpenID or URL account. Anyway, it's not as if anyone an identify you from "RS", so who cares?!

C-17 was on air force's wishlist for a long time before Nelson forked out the big bucks. Don't believe everything you hear about who made the Super Hornet decision either.

Wedgetail is four years late and the delay has nothing to do with air force. What were the alternatives at the time Wedgetail was chosen? The radar is currently meeting spec and is likely to exceed it after the last software upload at the end of this year.

RS said...

Sensitive little soul aren't you, and unaware of the facts, anon.
You also forget about the premature retirement of the F111, based on untruths by Houston and others , especially with regards to evidence in the Senate Hearings.
Lied about DSTO findings etc.
Also the premature retirement of the Caribou, for "asbestos" problems, another lie.
Wedgetail, crap, pure inompentence by DMO (again) not knowing what they were doing, ie, the inability to assess waht is real, and what is achievable in a realistic time frame.
Let us now start on the failed F35experiment.IOC due 2010, now 2018, how about, 20??
Pure incompetence.

RS said...

You know what realy gets me in Australia today?
The acceptance of Mediocrity by those in charge.

Bonza said...

Announced today was a successful launch of an operational JASSM by a RAAF Hornet last week, following on from an initial successful launch in the US back in December.

IOC is to be declared in December 2011 if there are no further hiccups.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/defence/raaf-hornet-fighters-to-be-armed-with-joint-air-to-surface-stand-off-missile/story-e6frg8yo-1226107393579

Atticus said...

How many in the inventory?

Bonza said...

The original DSCA announcement which has now been pulled said Australia had requested an initial batch of 260 JASSM's, however as the FMS case opens up an account of sorts from which additional purchases can be made from the same case the initial quantities don't really matter all that much.

Anonymous said...

I like how the RAAF/USAF/UK/USN etc operators get it wrong, while ELP, Horde RS/BS etc, none of whom have access to any real infomation on the said projects have all the answers!

Can someone please provide the number of Fast Jet hours that the ELP/RS/BS/APA crew have in the last say, 20 years? Maybe they "dont know what they dont know"

Atticus said...

Hmm, reminds me of my readings regarding how right they got it at the start of WW2.
What makes it any different now.

Some of Australias greatest and successful miltary leaders in WW1 and WW2 were previously civilians.
And if had not been for the forsight of people like Essington Lewis prior to WW2, it would have been worse.
However there are few students of history anymore.

This moronic reliance on a bloated public service to get it right amazes me.DMO has not got anything coreect in a decade.Seaasprite, MH90 Tigre,F35, submarine and ship maintenace etc etc. What have we got for 7,500 employees and an expenditure of 1.2 billion a year.

Guesss what free speech, analysis and discussion are needed.These incompetent fools need to be shown for what they are.
Guess what, and this will come as a shock, no name anon, all wisdom does not rest in Canberra.
The attacks on those who offer fair analysis and criticism smacks of a totalitarian state.
Anon said "I like how the RAAF/USAF/UK/USN etc operators get it wrong, while ELP, Horde RS/BS etc, none of whom have access to any real infomation on the said projects have all the answers!"

As you do please expand.

Bushranger 71 said...

A lengthy post of 4,000 characters keeps dropping off this thread. Puzzling!!!

Anonymous said...

Break it up?