If the F-35 has its Cheney moment, it could cause a collapse in the military aerospace industry (including the significant amount of small sub-contractors), like the world has never seen.
"The A-12 I did terminate. It was not an easy decision to make because it's an important requirement that we're trying to fulfill. But no one could tell me how much the program was going to cost, even just through the full scale development phase, or when it would be available. And data that had been presented at one point a few months ago turned out to be invalid and inaccurate."
Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney, 1991
To put it in terms those from Cowtown understand, the plan should be: how to get off the bronco without it killing the rider. The worldwide customers have to look for an alternate aircraft. For a few, other existing aircraft may be good enough. For high threat areas like the Pacific Rim, only the F-22 will do.
The F-35 has a lot of great technology ideas in the design such as the following:
-Minimize corrosion specific refurbishment over its life time. This is huge.
-The goal of where only 2 percent of maintenance actions require refurbishment of low observable material.
-The kinds of sensor fusion goals in the aircraft.
The problem is that the aircraft design is currently fragile, troubled and expensive. There is no realistic expectation that it will be able to stand up to high end threats over its supposed lifetime. It was designed with the idea that there would be enough F-22s to take on the high end threats.
The F-35 is not ready to be produced at the rate dreamed of over 10 years ago. Production of this aircraft should stop. When the aircraft is tested to a suitable level, production should start again: at a slow rate, with a non-moving production line. There just is not the need for a large number of second-tier tactical aircraft that can’t take on high-end threats and will be too expensive to operate to perform low-threat missions.
To save Lockheed (and other industries) from themselves, resources should be put toward F-22 production for those countries that need the deterrent firepower. That would be the U.S., Australia, Japan and Israel. It won’t be a perfect industry save but it will save industry from completely dying which is exactly what will happen when the F-35 fails with no plan-B to back it up.
The Hill needs to get a move on with this effort. The letter by the SASC to DOD the other day is the start of asking the correct questions of how to deal with failure. More questions need to be asked on how to reshuffle now—painful as it surely will be—so that a complete death of the F-35 won’t drag industry into ruin.
What can you do? Write your Congressmen and Senator; especially if you have anything to do with the F-35 industry. For non-U.S. countries like Australia, write your representative and show your concern. If we start now, we might have a chance.
If we wait for the F-35 program to be cancelled and do nothing, it will be too late. That, and no one will want to buy obsolete aircraft from the U.S. The choices for Lockheed Martin will be to shrink drastically and hope to get bought out by Boeing or cease to exist. Other industries depending solely on the F-35 will die hard.
None of us want this to happen.
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