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What GAO Found
The Department of Defense (DOD) currently has or is developing several plans and analyses that will make up its overall F-35 sustainment strategy, which is expected to be complete in fiscal year 2019. The annual F-35 operating and support (O&S) costs are estimated to be considerably higher than the combined annual costs of several legacy aircraft (see fig.). DOD has begun some cost-savings efforts and established sustainment affordability targets for the F-35 program, but DOD did not use the military services' budgets to set these targets. Therefore, these targets may not be representative of what the services can afford and do not provide a clear benchmark for DOD's cost-savings efforts. In addition, DOD has not fully addressed several issues that have an effect on affordability and operational readiness, including aircraft reliability and technical-data rights, which could affect the development of the sustainment strategy.
Comparison of the Annual Estimated F-35 Operating and Support (O&S) Cost at Steady State to Actual Legacy Aircraft O&S Costs in Fiscal Year 2010
Notes: For the purposes of this report, GAO defines steady-state operations as the period from 2036 to 2040, when, according to the services' plans, the number of F-35 aircraft and flying hours reaches its highest point and plateaus.
aThe F-35 cost presented is Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation's (CAPE) estimated total annual operating and support (O&S) cost for 2040 in base year 2012 dollars.
bLegacy aircraft cost is based on a CAPE analysis of 2010 cost data, representing a high point for aircraft O&S budgets due to contingency operations at that time.
It is unclear whether DOD's O&S cost estimates for the F-35 program reflect the most likely costs that the F-35 program will incur. DOD has two primary F-35 O&S estimates that each total around $1 trillion over a 56-year life cycle. These cost estimates are comprehensive in that they include all DOD-required program elements and are organized according to a standard O&S cost-estimating structure; however, weaknesses exist with respect to a few of the assumptions, and the estimates did not include all analyses necessary to make them fully reliable. For example, the estimates did not use reasonable fuel burn rate assumptions that reflect the likely future F-35 fuel usage. Further, one of the estimates did not use reasonable assumptions about part replacement rates and depot maintenance. Finally, while DOD took some steps to mitigate the uncertainties inherent in cost estimates, DOD officials did not conduct key analyses to determine the level of risk associated with the estimates.
Why GAO Did This Study
The F-35 Lightning II is intended to replace a variety of existing aircraft in the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps, while providing the most supportable, technologically advanced, lethal, and survivable aircraft to date. The F-35 is DOD's most expensive weapon system, with estimated sustainment costs of about $1 trillion. With the military services planning for the ability to deploy and maintain the F-35 within 4 years, DOD is working to develop a sustainment strategy that will be both affordable and executable for the program's life cycle.
GAO was mandated to review DOD's F-35 sustainment planning efforts. This report addresses the extent to which DOD has (1) developed an F-35 sustainment strategy and addressed potential risks related to affordability and operational readiness and (2) developed a reliable O&S cost estimate for the program's life cycle. GAO analyzed documented plans and cost estimates and interviewed DOD and contractor officials.
What GAO Recommends
GAO recommends that DOD develop better informed affordability constraints; address three risks that could affect sustainment, affordability, and operational readiness; and take steps to improve the reliability of its cost estimates. DOD concurred with all but one recommendation and partially concurred with the recommendation to conduct uncertainty analysis on one of its cost estimates, stating it already conducts a form of uncertainty analysis. GAO continues to believe that the recommended analysis would provide a more comprehensive sense of the uncertainty in the estimates.
For more information, contact Cary Russell at (202) 512-5431 or russellc@gao.gov.
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-Time's Battleland - 5 Part series on F-35 procurement - 2013
-Summary of Air Power Australia F-35 points
-Bill Sweetman, Aviation Week and the F-35
-U.S. Government Accounting Office (GAO) F-35 reports
-F-35 JSF: Cold War Anachronism Without a Mission
-History of F-35 Production Cuts
-Looking at the three Japan contenders (maneuverability)
-How the Canadian DND misleads the public about the F-35
-Value of STOVL F-35B over-hyped
-Cuckoo in the nest--U.S. DOD DOT&E F-35 report is out
-6 Feb 2012 Letter from SASC to DOD boss Panetta questioning the decision to lift probation on the F-35B STOVL.
-USAFs F-35 procurement plan is not believable
-December 2011 Australia/Canada Brief
-F-35 Key Performance Perimeters (KPP) and Feb 2012 CRS report
-F-35 DOD Select Acquisition Report (SAR) FY2012
-Release of F-35 2012 test report card shows continued waste on a dud program
-Australian Defence answers serious F-35 project concerns with "so what?"
-Land of the Lost (production cut history update March 2013)
-Outgoing LM F-35 program boss admits to flawed weight assumptions (March 2013)
-A look at the F-35 program's astro-turfing
-F-35 and F-16 cost per flying hour
-Is this aircraft worth over $51B of USMC tac-air funding?
-Combat radius and altitude, A model
-F-35A, noise abatement and airfields and the USAF
-Deceptive marketing practice: F-35 blocks
-The concurrency fraud
-The dung beetle's "it's known" lie
-F-35's air-to-air ability limited
-F-35 Blocks--2006 and today
-The F-35B design is leaking fuel
-F-35 deliveries
-ADF's wacky F-35 assumptions
-Gauging performance, the 2008 F-35, Davis dream brief
-Aboriginal brought out as a prop
-Super Kendall's F-35 problem
-LM sales force in pre-Internet era
-History of F-35 engine problems
-Compare
-JSF hopes and dreams...early days of the Ponzi Scheme
-The Prognostics
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