The smaller USAF

So the USAF is committed to the F-35A.

How should that total force look? What will it cost? What will it be able to do? What should it do?

I propose that it doesn’t have to be the program of record of 1763 aircraft because there is no need for that. Reason? The aircraft won’t be able to do much and it is going to cost a lot to own and operate. Expectations of its missions should be limited also, because of cost.

I propose that the USAF F-35A should be divided into two commands. That of an “air defense command” by any other name run not by the Air National Guard (they won’t be able to afford it) but by blended units of USAF active duty and reserve. There is a need for about 20 air defense locations around the U.S.

The second command would be to support 10 “air expeditionary forces” (AEF) deployment packages. This would not come from home air defense aircraft. A war contingency may only need 1 AEF package or 3, or 4.

These AEFs will be protected by F-22 deployments.

Because of the emerging threats and to-date, our limited response, we don’t need a lot of F-35s. Expectations of what a deployed F-35A can do will be limited. For example, Super Tucanos make better permissive-air CAS aircraft. Drones can do other permissive-air work. F-22s and cruise missiles make better work against emerging threats. The F-35A that the USAF is stuck with, fills in the gaps. Mostly against 2nd and 3rd rate forces that are unable to defend themselves.

I would base a deployed AEF from the numbers below. There would be 18 in the home squadron. 12 would make up the deployment package. Expect 8 to be ready to fly at the deployed location. As mentioned, other platforms will be doing the work only they can do.

F-35 combat-coded aircraft needs:

Home air defense: 360 F-35As. 1 squadron per 20 locations. 18 aircraft per squadron.

AEF: 180 F-35As. 10 squadrons; 18 aircraft per squadron.

540 combat-coded aircraft. Attrition, test, mods, training. x 1.3 for a grand total of 702 F-35As for the USAF.

Note that for the combat-coded aircraft, at any one time, each squadron may have 1-2 F-35As at the Ogden Depot at Hill AFB, Utah for programmed depot maintenance and modifications.

Looking at the rate of the USAF going out of business sale, I suspect that we will see F-15s (all versions) and F-16s end up being parked because of overall mismanagement in the top office.

F-22s/F-35As/Super Tucanos -- could easily end up as the future of USAF tac-air.

Other platforms (and services) will be doing most of the Team America: WORLD POLICE work.

At a slower, smaller, volume.

$17T-plus in-federal debt and all that.