Slowly; but moving.
Below I have created an overly simplistic chart that scores the potential replacements along with putting in some other aircraft for reference. High numbers are good. Low numbers are bad.
I have not put the Rafale in as their marketing team seems confused.
Confused in that they give the F-35 way too much credit. You can smell the defeat.
The F-35 is put in the chart below but its faulty program management makes it unscoreable.
The Gripen, F-16, and F-22 are there for reference only.
"Stealth". The F-22 has it. The Super Hornet, combined with its excellent defensive suite for the E and F model along with its AESA radar can in some situations, with some threats, give it a first look ability. That along with some low-observable appliances is the definition of a "balanced" approach to survivability.
(click image to make larger)
Performance. The chart shows a reasonable expectation of this.
Operations cost. Where the F-22 has trouble and the Gripen is very low. USAF figures for the F-16 are no longer credible due to a wide variety of confusion in maintenance management along with the fact that they possess no new aircraft. A new F-16 should be cheaper to operate than a Super Hornet.
Air-to-air: Also a good representation.
Air-to-ground: The Super Hornet would score higher but not very many weapons have been cleared on it compared to the F-16.
6000 thousand foot runways. Canada has a deployment contingency for this. The Super and even more so the Gripen make them the flight-safety choice.
Tanking. Only the Super and the Gripen come out of the box, ready to match up with Canada's current tankers.
Buddy tanking. This is possibly value-added to the Canadian Air Force so it is there to consider.
Notice that the Super Hornet has scoring in all categories.
Followed by the Gripen. The Gripen scores the next best and it is right behind the Super if buddy tanking and low-observable appliances are not needed as a requirement. As an aside, the Gripen NG has a wider AESA field of regard than any other Western aircraft.
It is operationally important that Canada get the Gripen into the competition.
Only the Super Hornet and Gripen, thus far, bring the most value to a CF-18 replacement.
Not scored on here? Industry. The Gripen has about 50 percent U.S. content. Canada already makes some Super Hornet components.
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