F-35 SAR

The next DOD select acquisition report shows a slight "dip" in the F-35 program costs. You can do that when capability still is not present almost 12 years after contract award. That, and reduced capability projections.

2012 reporting period summary for the F-35 SAR is here PDF.

It is unlikely that the U.S. DOD will see 2457 F-35s; but that is what the procurement predictions are based on.

There was another time in the F-35 program history where annual cost projections decreased for a SAR reporting period. Look at this F-35 select acquisition report summary for December 2002 (PDF).

Cost projections for the program went down because the Navy got cold-feet and dumped 409 jets.

JSF (Joint Strike Fighter) – Program costs decreased by $26,721.9 million (-11.8%) from $226,458.3 million to $199,736.4 million, due primarily to a decrease of 409 Navy aircraft (from 2,866 to 2,457 aircraft) (-$25,434.9 million), associated decreases in initial spares and support
requirements (-$3,956.3 million), as well as the application of revised escalation rates (-$3,404.4 million). These decreases were partially offset by increases in outyear costs due to production affects from lower aircraft quantities (+$2,623.7 million), the addition of International Commonality Effort (+$1,270.0 million), refined engine program to optimize interchangeability (+$1,157.8 million), and revised estimating methodology from parametric to bottom-up (+$451.4 million).

One year after the JSF contract award to LM.

This took the original DOD requirement of 2866 F-35s down to today's 2457.

What would the F-35 procurement projection cost be today had the DOD stuck with 2866 aircraft?

More? Less? Unknown.

The full SAR will be put out there soon. I will post it when I get it.

It will be interesting to see cost-per-flying-hour estimates.