This 2 year old video of F-15s with the "ZZ" tail code (Okinawa) is very good.
It is probably one of the better practice air combat videos you will see. Watch it on a large screen if you can.
Some interesting points:
I remember when Okinawa got new F-15C/D's.
Back in the early 1980s.
Long range AIM-120 shots against near-non-defending targets has shown a probability of kill (PK) of around 50 percent.
Modern aircraft are sure to jam this down to a lower PK. And thus, 3 out of 4 enemy aircraft could make it to the "merge" to within-visual-range (WVR) combat as shown in this video.
How many F-15C/Ds make it there after long range enemy shots is unknown. If the F-15s are not backed up by F-22s, they will suffer a parity (or worse) encounter versus the emerging Pacific Rim threats.
The threat has high-off-boresight (HOBS) cueing for WVR missiles, just like most U.S. legacy fighters. Note: The F-22 will not have HOBS for years...if ever.
Visually in WVR, the F-15 is big.
Many years ago we were told the USAF does not want to face air combat at parity. Parity is bad.
Because of years of gross negligence, parity seems unavoidable.
Other following detractors could hurt us:
-Lowering of flying hours and parking of aircraft due to budget problems.
-Unavailability of F-22s due to maintenance.
-F-15s that can be matched or better by the threat.
-Very old aircraft. If the "choice" 175 F-15C/Ds make it to the year 2030, that will be almost 50 years in service.
-F-22s go out by 2030 due to a variety of design issues versus maintenance. Harriers go by 2030. F-16s and Legacy Hornets will be long gone. Super Hornets will be old.
-The F-35 is unlikely to help this situation.
I would hope with such a horrific loss in combat capability that if no one is interested in fixing it, we cut the USAF budget significantly.
5 comments:
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A very damning comment but arguably, self-evident truth; unnecessarily and very unfortunately at that.
Indeed, very unfortunately, the harsh consequences of staying the course on the current 'modernization and recapitalization track', ever since 1999, without any prudent contingency planning and/or strategic-oriented policy making, has put the near-term and medium-term USAF TACAIR posture in a very vulnerable position.
The hollow force structure begotten and illusion of deterrence unfolding (as former USAF CoS Schwartz warned could happen), is a clear and present danger due to nothing more than continuing the stay the course TACAIR recap strategy since 1999.
Don't even bring up the excuse about "...well we're hurting because there's a cut in USAF's budget"! Absolutely false and misleading.
The USAF has a massive budget today and has had massive, unprecedented budgets to work with since 2002!
The fundamentally flawed decision making, broken acquisition process and non-existent contingency planning -- let alone the apparent zero accountability for said flawed decision making -- are to blame. Nothing more.
God speed.
Eric,in this month issue of Combat aircraft monthly,Robert F. Dorr has an article in wich he states that there is a growing number of people in the DoD asking the US armed forces to buy advanced versions of the F-15E Strike Eagle,the F-16F Desert Falcon and the Super Hornet...
It is also said in the same magazine that the ANG is pushing for buy new Block 60 F-16s...
My question is:what are your toughts on this...would it help save the day?
Eric,
What are your thoughts about restarting the F-15XX proposal as an alternative to the failed F-35"Joke Still Flying"?
Development of a new fighter will take 10 years at least and if all current fighters operated by US will see EOL at 2030, theres only the current F-35 left which is over priced and under performing.
Which means it's only a year or two before a decision have to be made regarding keep on experimenting with F-35 or going for a new fighter.
Interesting, Nuno.
My personal gut sense is that, um yeah... it's a little late now to be just starting new-build stopgap F-16 acquisition 'chatter'?
ANG et al arguably missed their most prudent window and timing to get this reality ball rolling for an FY12 F-16 emergency stopgap add-on.
As for now, perhaps FY15 would be the earliest to throw in a few initial buy orders as a stopgap. The politics would likely have to change dramatically, and very soon, however.
Interesting to read too though, is this apparent UAE 'interest to buy' 26 additional F-16s? Would those be follow-on Block 60 models (or the proposed F-16V)? Or merely a derivative of the latest models rolling off the line, e.g., a block 50/52+, but perhaps w/AESA?
If UAE is indeed going ahead and acquiring another couple dozen type F-16V (or equivalent), I'd say it definitely an opportunity for the USAF/ANG to piggy back on and say something like... "You know, Congress... er, um, we actually do REQUIRE some form of operational modern fighter to finally start replacing our old geriatric F-16s, which we had assumed to have already begun being replaced by now". "Can we get even a half-dozen new F-16s for FY15 or, maybe 2-3x of the F-15SA-variants (e.g., attrition replacements), just to get things started as a possible hedge?"
The whole process and recap situation thus far has no doubt been a tragedy on historic proportions. God speed.
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