New F-35 GAO report is out

The United States Government Accounting Office (GAO) has released their annual report on the F-35. You can click on any of the graphics below to make them larger.

The GAO gives some minor free-bees to the faithful, stating progress. However this is against an ever-moving goal post via rebaselining. And as General Bogdan has told us; there is no more money to add to the program if more trouble appears.

Some GAO Numbers:

$12.6B (average) procurement funding per year until 2037

1/3 of development flight testing done.

$57.8B for 289 aircraft purchased before completion of development ($200M each).

Services spending $8B on legacy aircraft life enhancement due to F-35 delays.



And some history:



We have some opportunities for the normalization of deviance types. Of note: block definitions have been lowered since 2006. According to the GAO, software management has improved.

Of interest, the GAO tells us what we already know:

"Thus far, the program has made little progress on block 3.0 software. The program intends initial block 3.0 to enter flight test in 2013, which will be conducted concurrently with the final 15 months of block 2B flight tests. Delivery of final block 3.0 capability is intended to begin nearly 3 years of developmental flight tests in 2014. This is rated as one of the program’s highest risks because of its complexity."

More for the normalization of deviance crew:









Gee, for the believers, that looks like a normal Defense program. That last one is what they like to see.

The GAO states that while the bulk of test demonstration is still ahead, manufacturing is showing improvement. GAO also states that manufacturing is becoming more efficient. Production costs are "trending towards targets" and aircraft deliveries are "accelerating".

GAO then tells us the concurrency issue is far from solved:

"Even with the positive trends in manufacturing, cost, and schedule discussed above, the government continues to incur risk by procuring large quantities of aircraft with the majority of testing still ahead. The contractor continues to make major design and tooling changes and alter manufacturing processes concurrent with development testing. Engineering design changes from discoveries during manufacturing and testing are declining in number, but are still substantial and higher than expected from a program this far into production. With extensive testing ahead, discoveries in testing will drive more design changes, possibly impacting manufacturing processes and the supplier base."

Then we are reminded by GAO of the aircraft's complexity. The flying piano effect:



And...the cost vs. the mistake-jet factor:



Procurement numbers are still an issue vs. our federal budget disaster. For example, if more carriers are parked, that is less need for carrier air wings...assuming the F-35C can trap.

GAO warns us about worldwide F-35 buys, but we have covered that ground before. It is one of many wild cards in the F-35 deck.

The GAO finishes up with Captain Obvious, CAPE and all:

"Overall, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program is now moving in the right direction after a long, expensive, and arduous learning process. It still has tremendous challenges ahead."

Like other GAO reports, it doesn't mention much about combat capability. Pacific Rim threats are changing. I don't see any evidence of the U.S. and allied force structure changing enough to meet those threats. The F-35 won't contribute to solving that problem.