"Lt-Gen Bogdan said the F-35s would cost between $US80 million and $US90 million by the time Australia was due to receive its batch of 12."
What has Australia been told before?
“It’s about $37 million for the CTOL aircraft, which is the air force variant.”
- Colonel Dwyer Dennis, U.S. JSF Program Office brief to Australian journalists, 2002-
". . . US$40 million dollars . . "
-Senate Estimates/Media Air Commodore John Harvey, AM Angus Houston, Mr Mick Roche, USDM, 2003-
" . . US$45 million in 2002 dollars . ."
-JSCFADT/Senate Estimates, Air Commodore John Harvey, Mr Mick Roche, USDM, 2003/2004-
". . average unit recurring flyaway cost of the JSF will be around US$48 million, in 2002 dollars . . "
-Senate Estimates/Press Club Briefing, Air Commodore John Harvey, 2006
". . the JSF Price (for Australia) - US$55 million average for our aircraft . . in 2006 dollars . ."
-Senate Estimates/Media AVM John Harvey ACM Angus Houston, Nov. 2006-
“…DMO is budgeting around A$131 million in 2005 dollars as the unit procurement cost for the JSF. .”
-AVM John Harvey Briefing, Office of the Minister for Defence, May 2007-
“There are 108 different cost figures for the JSF that I am working with and each of them is correct”
-Dr Steve Gumley, CEO of the DMO, Sep./Oct. 2007-
“…I would be surprised if the JSF cost us anymore than A$75 million … in 2008 dollars at an exchange rate of 0.92”
-JSCFADT Dr Steve Gumley, CEO DMO, July 2008-
". . Dr Gumley's evidence on the cost of the JSF was for the average unit recurring flyaway cost for the Australian buy of 100 aircraft . ."
-JSCFADT/Media AVM John Harvey, Aug. 2008-
Confirmed previous advice i.e. A$75 million in 2008 dollars at an exchange rate of 0.92,
-JSCFADT Dr Steve Gumley, CEO of the DMO, Sep. 2009-
" ...about $77 million per copy."
-Robert Gates, U.S. Secretary of Defense, Feb. 2008.
Bogdan is also off-message. Consider this:
We will continue to drop the price of the airplane out to approximately 2020 where the US government estimate is for an airplane, with the engine and all mission equipment, to be approximately $US67 million ($A66 million)," he said.
"That is better than any fourth generation fighter out there today in terms of cost."
2 comments:
Is that last price quote of $67m in 2020, the estimated URF in '2002' Dollars, or ThenYear Dollars?
An hypothetical URF of $67m, even in 2002 dollars by 2020 (for a mature and design-fixed model) would not be too bad for an URF in all reality, especially if it was a block IV being offered in this notional FY20 procurement.
It would mostly likely still not be as cheap as a notional Super Hornet block III+ (in 2002 URF dollars), but still not bad for a block IV URF in 2002 dollars..
What would be the determining factor however, and limiting factor for customers, would be the Total unit Weapon System cost figure, plus the required initial spares as part of the acquisition price. Not the URF.
Very interestingly though, is the quote made back in 2007 for $131m in 2005 dollars as being the budgeted total Procurement Unit Cost (PUC), which would include initial spares as part of the unit weapon system cost.
That would come out to around a $190m unit Procurement cost by around 2020 in Then Year dollars, based on an avg annual inflation of about 2.5%. That too would arguably be a relatively good unit procurement price in 2020, for a mature block IV if a customer can actually get that price.
Customers (including the USAF) wouldn't be able to procure units in the officially expected (ie, originally and currently estimated) annual rates, given such a FRP procurement price tag, but even if one could ultimately acquire half a fleet (mature block IV/V) at said avg unit price, it would be surprising.
Therein lies the big gamble and speculative bet however. Will that mature, reliable and design-fixed block IV and block V F-35 ultimately materialize as expected, within a reasonable delay, and at that cost?
It would depend on the value a customer puts on sending up targets for potential insurgent strike aircraft. Lots of $ for what could realistically be 'cannon fodder' for existing and near term new strike craft which will out perform the f35...'once it gets off the ground' in scale.
I am being hard on the f35, however if its not up to the task now (as evidence suggests) how can it be in the future?
Push the f35 development funding over the f22 and derivatives of, and end this fiasco. It's a one air frame/platform solution (which has its own set of risks), but why not consider this? Savings on maintance, parts, with cross utilisation on wepons/system applicable to the various versions of f22(x,x,x,x) Why keep throwing money on a fire which is not yielding any heat..
Tell me where the f35 make sence now?
Ps I realise that the f22 may not not be sold/released to all current partners in the f35 program?, and there are many nations look for an f16 replacement....however an expensive sub standard platform makes me cringe (especially if we are funding it). I don't think the f16 started its life out I the same manner.?
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