During the 15 years of JSF development, the high-end threats needed to prevent deep penetration of enemy air space also have “continued to evolve and become harder and harder” to avoid, says a senior aerospace industry official who was in Washington to hear Air Force leaders discuss the fast-approaching fiscal contraction.
As a result, the F-35 is having its mission tailored to operate outside the range of the most advanced, electronically scanned radars used for next-generation, surface-to-air weapon systems. These include the Russian-developed family of long-range, high-altitude interceptor missiles such as the S-300 PMU2 (SA-20), S-400 (SA-21) and S-500 (Triumfator).
Even if some of us knew this already.
18 comments:
ok. so let me get this straight, how are they going to face russia destroyer equipped with S-300 class air defense?
Their next generation air defense missiles will be the size of patriot missiles (ie. it might even fit on smaller frigate tonnage ship)
I keep insisting that aerodynamic come first. With the advent of metamaterial, aggressive anti radar shaping can largely be supplanted with advance coating or active skin.
So, in the end, again, aerodynamic wins.
It's an interesting point that you make Anonymous wrt materials.
The issue that I see for the war between materials (defense) vs electronics (detect/engage)is that the R&D cycle time for Electronics is far faster than that for materials. Say 3 yrs vs 15 yrs respectively.
So a new generation of materials can be developed that will defeat current electronics, but in short order, the electronics evolve and adapt and the advantage is lost.
So on average, advanced materials are only in front of opposing systems say (ballpark) 20% to 25% of the time.
Important to remember that every game-changing system will always face an evolved counter-measure eventually, to be followed w/ a counter-counter-measure accordingly, depending on the perceived mismatch or compromised interests of the month.
In the interim phase at least, it would seem to be a no-brainer to develop an air-launched derivative of something like the SM-6 body, incorporating at least a couple of off-the-shelf seeker combinations to be deployed accordingly to fill various multi-mission requirements.
I couldn't agree more, the west is desperately in need of improved air to air and ground to air missiles.
Graeme,
What like the JAGM, Brimstone II, AASM, AARGM, JASSM, JASSM-ER, JDRADM, JSM, Meteor, AIM-9XII, Stunner, A-Darter and AIM-120D?
Just wondering...
Bonza -
I'd concur with you and would actually be curious to see the upgraded Rafale, but custom integrated w/ A-Darter on the wing-tips too and armed w/ a couple data-linked MICA-IR go toe to toe in a DACT competition with an F-35 starting @ 20nm.
No question modern western ordnance covers a broad capability spectrum... but I think the gist was that some next-gen 'holes' in capability might still exist, or rather, recently exposed holes or those in the near-future as modern doctrine sometimes does reveal, might require or justify enhanced capability/deterrence 'gap-filling' attention, even when planners think they have everything covered?
I know why you chose 20nm Anon. Because that's about as far as an IR missile is going to be of use in the conceivable future. It's why active radar guided AAM's came to the fore, why they remain there and why the most advanced currently in development air to air weapons continue to rely predominantly on active radars as their main seeker.
Why not make it interesting and have the same future Rafale match up with a Block V F-35A carrying 6+ internal JDRADM (or NGM as it's now known) seeing as though we're going for outer year theoretical engagements?
That would be an interesting comparison considering that the Rafale is in service and WORKS vs. the F-35A which still has no warfighting capability in spite of having the most lavish fighter development budget in history.
And as we've seen many times now (ejection seat, helmet display, etc) the estimated abilities of the JSF seem to be fading away to reveal a starkly different reality.
Rafale is in-service. A-Darter isn't.
Rafale had a 15 year head start on the JSF, of course it's in-service and works.
JSF has a huge development budget true. But then perhaps it's budget isn't so huge afterall given what is being delivered.
Next time someone decides to designed a modern, stealthy, supersonic strike fighter in CTOL, CV and STOVL variants off the one common airframe, we can assess the two programs side by side to see how well they've been run and whether this current budget is overly lavish or not.
Hi Bonza, I like to refer to actual deployed capability - wake me up when the Meteor, 120D, etc are actually fielded.
WRT the JSF program - the key threat is the fiscal disaster of the US (+ ROW) - the program could easily be canned within the next 2 to 3 years, with less than 200 mistake jets built and sitting in hangers w/o funds to get them to IOC.
Hopefully Austalia will default to having a real contest for an F18A replacement, assuming that we still have the funds to do so.
Just replying to your comment tha the West is "desperately" in need of improved A2G and A2A missiles.
No-one is disagreeing, it's why all those programs exist to provide better capability that is available in current weapon systems.
I think you're being just a tad pessimistic there about JSF, but time will tell and I'm happy to wait and note down a few of the more of the extreme comments that are made around the place in the meantime. I'll regurgitate them in a few ears and we'll see just how accurate everyone's POV was.
I don't believe L-M's projections on numbers either, but I suspect USAF, USN and USMC will get a few hundred less than they hoped, with probably the USAF losing the most and could easily be down 300-400 airframes over it's best case projection of 1763 aircraft.
Still, with 1300 odd F-35A's in USAF service, supported by 187 odd F-22A's, 220 odd AESA radar upgraded F-15E's and 180 odd F-15C "Golden Eagles", USAF alone will be mounting nearly 1900 advanced manned TACAIR fighters, plus what ever unmanned tactical assets they can afford,. I don't think this quite the doomsday scenario that many are painting.
I suspect USN will get 200-300 F-35C's, plus it's 600 odd Super Hornets and Growlers and USMC will end up with somewhere around 300-350 F-35B's, all up US frontline TACAIR will mount in excess of 3000 platforms with a good 2000+ being VLO fighters.
That's hardly a combat ineffective force number, if my suspicions prove right.
Bonza said:
"I'm happy to... note down a few of the more of the extreme comments that are made... I'll regurgitate them in a few ears and we'll see just how accurate everyone's POV was."
You're going to what, in a few 'ears'?? :)
Good question though, if in a few years one know what US TACAIR's picture will look like in 2035?
I'm all ears to various projections and alternative game plans, but a fatal flaw and common confusion in the perception in USAF having all 1,300 F-35s still in operation by 2036, let alone 187 F-22, 220 F-15E and 170 Golden Eagles(?)... you are setting yourself up for an ugly wake-up call ringing by 2020 at the latest.
For one thing, the well-intentioned Golden Eagles probably won't even be funded beyond the initial few radars, as USAF doesn't even have funds to integrate IRST and complain about maintaining them today under $530bn base budgets!
As such, anticipate older block F-16s being gone by 2020 too.
F-15E: the 220 figure could possibly be down to 70-80x by 2025 -- simply too expensive to upgrade and maintain old platforms and engines when procurement is needed for 'back-ended' F-35 buys.
The F-22: Remember the USAF only bought 85x block 35-capable F-22 units (the block actually intended to deter and counter emerging capabilities and threats beyond 2020-25) before Procurement was killed. By 2020-2025, the oldest platforms will likely begin to see retirement too. (just too expensive to upgrade and maintain). Then factor in attrition. By 2030? Look for a 100-110 ship F-22 force.
Lastly, F-35: in the austere budget environments ahead, the USAF would be fortunate to have in $4bn-$4.2 bn range (in FY2011 USD) allocated annually for combat aviation. One can assume congress will define that as 'manned' combat aviation and not lump UCAV in that size of budget. That should buy about 25 F-35A per year under FRP?
staying the course, USAF in 2030:
-the last F-15E squadron retires.
-75x F-22 block 35 fleet remains, all other F-22s retired.
-275 combat coded F-35A composing the fleet. (initial production lots already retired)
-60 VLO UCAV
USAF + USN scrambling since around 2020 and finally agree on a common Tactical platform replacement design on which to commence joint development with 1-2 foreign partners participating.
Typo Geogen, I meant years...
Still I'll see you back here in 2030 and we'll see who was right and who was optimistic about numbers.
Thinking the USAF will drop to less than 400 manned fighters in total is a new record I think. That doesn't even add up to your claim of 25 airframes F-35 airframes a year by then, but whatever.
I'm happy to wait and see how it will pan out. I've made my thoughts known on how many fighters we'll see.
Fair enough.
ELP, are you good for this? Bonza wants to be back in 2030.
Regarding the rough 275 combat coded F-35A guesstimate by 2030, @ roughly 25 units per yr under FRP ($4.1bn procurement budget/yr in FY2011 USD), that would relate to 'combat coded' aircraft and would take into account a number of early lot production a/c being retired by 2030, or attrition, or sold via FMS, etc.
If you can propose a future procurement budget schedule coming in close to what the current expectation is of > $8bn per year under FRP, despite a period of austere budget environments, then I'd support it...but it would of course have to come from something else in the base budget. Maybe from Army? They've got a huge account going, maybe cut by $50bn from Army and transfer $5bn towards essential equipment procurement to each of: USN, USMC and USAF? That would still cut $35bn a year from the budget.
My answer is:
QF-35.
No good ELP, it proponents reckon it is invisible,so of no use as a target.
QF-35, sounds like a plan but with everything else retired from service, what are you going to shoot it down with?
Something imported from China?
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